Methodology

Last updated 2026-09-03

Organic Upside follows the logic of a search business case. More visibility brings more visits. Visits convert at a rate. Conversions are worth money. Compare that money with what the program costs. The tool applies that logic to three channels and keeps the parts you can measure separate from the parts you have to estimate.

The shared shape

Every channel produces added visits per month. Those become conversions and revenue through two numbers you set once:

conversions = visits x conversion rate
revenue     = conversions x value per conversion

Time

You choose a horizon of 12, 24 or 36 months and a ramp of 3 to 12 months. Results do not jump to the target on day one. They follow an S-curve from zero to the full effect over the ramp, then hold. For month m and ramp R:

t = min(m / R, 1)
ramp factor = 3t^2 - 2t^3

Every figure on the page is computed month by month with that factor and summed over the horizon.

Quick mode

Each channel starts from a baseline and a growth target.

Growth targets: conservative 15%, moderate 35%, ambitious 60%, or a custom figure. The target is the uplift reached at full effect.

added visits at full effect = baseline x uplift

Detailed mode

Paste rows and the tool works keyword by keyword.

SEO. Each keyword has a monthly search volume, a current position and a target position. A click-through curve gives the share of searches that click each position (see Benchmarks). If an AI Overview appears for the keyword, classic clicks are multiplied by 0.65.

visits now    = volume x CTR(current position) x AI Overview factor
visits target = volume x CTR(target position) x AI Overview factor
added visits  = max(visits target - visits now, 0)

AEO. Each question has a search volume, whether you are cited in the answer today, and the target. When you gain a citation, a share of searches click through to the cited source.

added visits = volume x citation click rate x (target share - current share)

GEO. Each prompt has a prompt volume, or a comparable search volume that the AI demand ratio converts into one, plus your current and target mention share.

prompt volume = given, or search volume x AI demand ratio
added visits  = prompt volume x clicks per mention x (target share - current share)

Direct and influenced

Everything above is direct value: a click happened. AI assistants also influence people who never click. They hear a recommendation, then search your brand or type your address later. That is real but hard to measure, so the tool keeps it on its own line:

influenced visits      = GEO added visits x influence multiplier
influenced conversions = influenced visits x conversion rate x influence conversion factor

Influenced value stays out of the headline, ROI and payback until you switch it on. The switch is saved with your scenario, so whoever opens your link sees the same choice.

Investment and returns

cumulative cost(m)  = one-time cost + monthly cost x m
net value           = total value - total cost
ROI                 = net value / total cost
payback month       = first month where cumulative value >= cumulative cost
paid equivalent     = added clicks x cost per click

The paid equivalent answers a question leadership often asks: what would it cost to buy the same clicks? It is a comparison, not a saving you bank.

What this model does not do

• It does not forecast rankings. You supply the target and it prices the outcome.
• It does not know prompt volumes. No AI vendor publishes them. The AI demand ratio is an editable estimate and is labeled as one.
• It does not discount future money. Over 36 months that can matter; apply your own rate to the month table if you need it.
• It does not count brand, retention or paid-search cannibalization effects. Those are real and out of scope.